Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Taking Profits In New River (NRPH)

Today I closed my position in New River Pharma (NRPH) to book a nice 30% gain. The valuation of their new ADHD drug has gotten too pricey and reminds me of what happened to Cephalon (CEPH) (dropped from $80 to $60 in about 10 days). Plus I was burned badly in Axonyx (AXYX) last year and will not make the same mistake in another speculative biotech. I don't feel that New River's 1.17 billion dollar market cap is justified for a drug that could easily get the "Class II" black labeling, making it no safer than Shire's (SHPGY) Adderall XR. I see 10-15 points of upside if there is a favorable ruling and 10-15 points of downside for an unfavorable FDA ruling. I could have held onto my shares and bought puts, but I would rather just take profits. It should be noted that New River is also working on a safer version of Vicodin, but that drug alone is not significant enough to justify the current market cap if their ADHD drug fails.


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