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Thursday, February 15, 2007

Nymex Holdings (NMX) Upgraded

JP Morgan (JPM) upgraded Nymex Holdings (NMX) this morning based on better than expected futures volume growth. I have been bullish on Nymex since its IPO and I continue to hold the stock despite its rich valuation. I have created a model in Excel to estimate revenue based on the published volume from nymex.com.

With average volume of 1.6 million contracts per day, total average net rate per contract of $1.16, quarterly expenses of $40mm, and a 45% tax rate. I estimate EPS for Q1 to exceed the current street estimate of $0.52. I expect Nymex to earn at least $0.55.

Note: I am long NMX

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