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Saturday, October 20, 2007

Use Weakness to Buy Quality

The recent market weakness has provided a great opportunity to initiate positions in high quality companies. Global agricultural demand will not be affected by problems in the credit markets. Demand for wheat, soybeans, corn, and rice will continue to remain strong. The best stock to own is Mosaic (MOS). Owning shares of Mosaic will give you exposure to crop nutrients and fertilizers. Earnings should grow 15% annually for the next three years. Mosaic has already prepaid $700M in debt since 2005 and has signaled to the markets that cash flows will remain strong. Compared to its peers, Mosaic is undervalued and should be accumulated on any weakness.

Note: I am long MOS

28 Comments:

Blogger Robert said...

Very compelling stock, but at what price range do you find it attractive? It's been up 267% in the last 52 weeks, and PEG suggestions valuation may be reaching upper bound of growth limitations. Price to FCF is great, though, still less than 10. Any insight into max buy price you'd go with right now?

10/21/2007 3:35 PM  
Blogger newequity said...

I would not pay up MOS for it

10/21/2007 8:11 PM  
Blogger Big Ben said...

Let the stock come in a bit more. I don't see MOS falling below $55 anytime soon.

10/21/2007 10:40 PM  
Blogger Mike said...

You have really pointed out a very good stock pick. With growing credit concerns in stock market, there will be significant impact in stocks of many different categories but MOS from agricultural section will really outperform the others as this stock will not be impacted from growing concerns of credit market.

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