Friday, September 30, 2005

Lennar Added to S&P 500

One of my stock picks, Lennar (LEN) will be added to the S&P 500 on 10/3/05. I will hold on to this stock for the next month or so. It should make it to at least $65 as all of the mutual funds will have to buy it. Lennar will replace Gillette, which merged with Proctor & Gamble. Google got snubbed by S&P. For more information click here.

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Homebuilders Upgraded

Homebuilding stocks were upgraded today by Deutsche Securities. My stock pick in this sector is Lennar (LEN). The other homebuilders that were upgraded are Beazer (BZH), Centex (CTX), DR Horton (DHI), Hovnanian (HOV), KB Home (KBH), MDC Holdings (MDC), Orleans Homebuilders (OHB), Pulte Homes (PHM), Ryland Group (RYL), and Toll Brothers (TOL).

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Cypress Semiconductor Downgraded

JP Morgan downgraded Cypress Semiconductor (CY) today along with Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS). They believe earnings have peaked for chip stocks. As I mentioned before I like Cypress for the spinoff of their Sunpower unit in Q4 as well as an Ipod play. I think Cypress is worth $18.00 a share.

Note: I am long the Cypress Jan 15 Call

Monday, September 26, 2005

Lennar (LEN) Reports Record Earnings

Lennar (NYSE: LEN) reported record earnings. They beat estimates that were raised several times. Lennar raised estimates for 2005 to $8.10 and $9.25 for 2006. The stock is trading close to $58 a share right now. Lennar has a forward P/E of about six. Earnings are growing at about 15%. Gross margins were up 340 basis points. Backlog is up 33% and new orders are up 24%. The conference call is tomorrow at 11 AM ET.

The fact of the matter is Lennar is too cheap fundamentally to sell right now. The orders are there and the backlog is there. I would even consider buying at these levels if it wasn't for Mr. Greenspan.

Note: I am long Lennar.

Cypress Semiconductor Jan 15 Call

I bought the Cypress Semiconductor (CY) Jan 15 call option today. Cypress has a solar division that it will spin off at the end of this year that should add some value to the stock. It is also an Ipod play, as they makes parts for the Ipod Nano.

Saturday, September 24, 2005

Call Options

I am looking at Hallibuton (HAL) and Cypress Semiconductor (CY) call options. I will do more research and come up with a variety of plans for the safest investment alternative. I am bullish on both of these stocks. With stock options timing is everything.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Bought More Chesapeake (CHK) Stock Today

I increased by basis and bought some more shares of Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) today. Our natural gas supply could become severely crippled if Hurricane Rita hits the Gulf hard. One of the reasons why I like Chesapeake is the large insider buying at the company by upper level executives. Just about any natural gas company will make you money (SWN), (DVN), (XTO), (BR), (SJT) .... The list goes on.

Note: I am long (CHK)

Refining Stocks Surge

Oil refining stocks that don't have exposure in the Gulf, especially near Texas, are surging today. I prefer Tesoro as they process about 560,000 barrels of oil a day. Alon processes about 70,000 and Frontier can do about 162,000. Obviously there are other refiners but these don't have the exposure to the Gulf like many of the big integrated companies. You can click on the links below to see a map of where each companies refineries are located.

Alon (ALJ)
Frontier (FTO)
Tesoro (TSO)

Note: I am long Tesoro (TSO)

Monday, September 19, 2005

Energy Stocks Revisited

Hopefully everbody had a chance to buy some energy stocks on the pullback last week, like I recommended. I wish I had bought Chesapeake (CHK) but I will just have to wait for a pull back.

Sunday, September 18, 2005

Energy Futures Set to Open Higher

Another storm might be heading for the gulf. Early trading is sending crude up over $0.70 and natural gas over $0.50. Energy stocks should open higher. Keep an eye on the more levered plays like Conoco (COP), Chesapeake (CHK), Ultra Petroleum (UPL), Valero (VLO), Tesero (TSO), and San Juan Trust (SJT) . The report is from the Associated Press.

I am long Chesapeake & Tesero. If it pulls back I will add to my position.

Friday, September 16, 2005

Stock Market Summary for 9/16/05

S&P 5001,237.91+10.18(+0.83%)
10-Yr Bond4.262% +0.05
NYSE Volume3,157,508,000
Nasdaq Volume2,447,211,000

Stock Portfolio Return

Year to date return after commissions and including realized & unrealized (gains/losses) is 5.78%

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Chesapeake Energy Featured in Business Week

There is article about Chespeake Energy (CHK) in Business Week. Chesapeake is one of my stock picks for 2005-2006. I believe it should reach $40 by the end of 2006, possibly as early as the end of this year. Chesapeake has been my best performing stock in 2005 (Up 67%).

Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Stock Market Closing Bell

Stock Market Wrap-up for 9/13/05

S&P 5001,231.200.00(0.00%)
10-Yr Bond4.134% -0.03
NYSE Volume2,083,031,000
Nasdaq Volume1,809,658,000

Added Some Motorola (NYSE: MOT)

I few days ago I added some Motorola (NYSE: MOT). I am looking to increase my position in Motorola once Lennar (NYSE: LEN) trades between $64-65 and I will feel comfortable selling it. Lennar has been quite a disappointment, as has been the entire housing sector, since I picked it June. I am exactly even in Lennar and will probably hold until the conference call on the 27th. I did have a nice profit while holding Lennar but never realized the gain. If Lennar trades up prior to the call I will probably sell my entire position.

Monday, September 12, 2005

Buy on Weakness

If you don't own any energy stocks I reccomend buying a portion of your position on today's weakness in the sector.

Coal is Hot

Not only have oil and natural gas stocks been up this year but so have coal stocks. I don't own any coal stocks but if I were to buy into this sector I would look at Peabody (BTU), Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG) (has a 7% yield), Arch Coal (ACI), and Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP).

Halliburton Upgraded & Downgraded Today

Halliburton (HAL), a stock that I own, was downgraded by Wachovia today because of "valuation." Wachovia also downgraded Schlumberger(SLB). A.G. Edwards reiterated a "buy" on Halliburton by raising estimates and its price target to $72 from $66.

Sunday, September 11, 2005

Bull Market Blog Picture

The picture at the top of the blog is by Jeff Macko. For more information visit

Friday, September 09, 2005

Tesoro Up 14% Since Purchase

I bought some Tesoro on 8/31/05. I am up about 14% since selling part of my position in Halliburton. I will take some Tesoro off the table once it reaches the $70-75 range. Tesoro has slightly outperformed Valero over the past 5 days. While Valero has outperformed Tesoro by a wide margin over the past year.

Year to Date Return

If I am calculating this right my YTD return is 4.18%. I will check it a couple more times.

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Investing Return Since 11/1/04

Including dividends & the cost of commisions my return from 11/1/04-9/6/05 is 4.58%

Tesoro (TSO) No Longer a Trade

I have decided to break my rules and stay long oil refiner Tesoro (TSO), despite being up over 8% in a week. I think it should easily hit $75. The earnings estimates are too low for oil to be around $65-$70 a barrel.

Cerner (NASDAQ: CERN) is En-Fuego

Electronic medical records company Cerner (CERN) has been on fire the past couple of days. Al lot of it is on a short squeeze. This stock is one of my short squeeze picks. It is up 30% since I recommended it.

Note: I am long Cerner Corp.

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Citigroup Upgrades Refiners, Tesero (NYSE: TSO)

Citigroup upgraded several refiners including Tesero (NYSE: TSO), a stock that I own. Tesero's price target was raised to $72. He raised Valero's (NYSE: VLO) price target to $132. And he upgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) from "sell" to "buy."

Stock Market Rallies

The stock market is rallying with the price of oil down over $1.50. Natural gas is up slightly. Halliburton won a competitive bid to help cleanup part of New Orleans.

Friday, September 02, 2005

Top Performing ETF's YTD

Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's)
Returns are YTD before dividends and fees.

Energy Select (XLE) 31.89%
Vanguard Energy (VDE) 30.55%
iShares Dow Jones US Energy (IYE) 27.94%
iShares Global Energy (IXC) 24.52%
iShares Goldman Sachs Energy (IGE) 23.87%
iShares South Korea (EWY) 23.04%
iShares S&P Latin America (ILF) 22.33%
Utilities Select Spider (XLU) 17.69%
iShares Mexico Free Index (EWW) 16.97%
BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index (ADRE) 16.91%

Stock Market Recap 9/2/05

S&P 5001,218.02-3.57(-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond4.029% +0.01

Source: Yahoo Finance

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Altria Boosts Dividend

Altria (NYSE: MO) announced that they will increase their dividend to .80 per quarter. I still like the stock at these levels. Try to buy under $70.

Drowning in Oil

My portfolio is overweight energy. I have taken profits in Halliburton (NYSE: HAL). I am still holding Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK). I added a refiner yesterday Tesero (NYSE: TSO). They are an excellent takeover candidate plus they don't have any refineries in the Gulf. They also have a refinery in Alaska which should see added business if we start drilling in Alaska. Right now just about any energy stock is working.