Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Russian Wireless

Emerging market wireless carriers have outperformed the overall markets. Some of the popular names include China Mobile (CHL), America Movil (AMX), and NII Holdings (NIHD).

It is time to look at two Russian wireless providers, Vimpel Communications (VIP) and Mobile Telesystems (MBT). Both stocks are up over 60% in the past year. I still believe there is more room to run for both MBT and VIP. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) has started to climb after two years of declining ARPU. Vimpel and Mobile Telesystems both can trade at 10x 2007 EBITDA for 20+% annual growth.

10x 2007 EBITDA would value MBT at $85 (ING Bank EBITDA Estimate). 88% Upside
20x 2007 EPS would value MBT at $72.40. 60% Upside
20x 2007 EPS would value VIP at $93.80. 40% Upside


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