What is going on in the stock market?

I am no stock market oracle but I still think we are heading lower. With oil off its highs you would think that retail and the broader market would start to show some life. Generally when things look ugly it is a good time to buy. I still think too many people are bullish about Q4. I believe that the Dow will lose another 100-150 points in the coming weeks. Many traders have seen big gains erased and are selling at every little sign of strength. One notable group is the homebuilders. Take a look at the Toll Brother's 6-month chart. Basically it has round tripped back to where it was in early June. I honestly don't know what to say, except I hope I am wrong about where this market is going.